WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN)       
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 132.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 637 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND PROXYVIS IMAGERY 
DEPICT A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A CENTROID. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A RECENT SMOS IMAGE WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, A 291200Z ASCAT-C IMAGE RECEIVED LATE IN 
THE WARNING CYCLE INDICATED THE CENTER IS LIKELY ABOUT 15 TO 20NM 
SOUTHEAST OF THE INITIAL POSITION BUT WELL WITHIN THE 45NM POSITION 
CONFIDENCE. A 290936Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A 
BROAD AND DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK 
ESTIMATES BASED ON A 290905Z SMOS IMAGE SHOWING EVIDENCE OF 45 TO 55 
KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA: ADJUSTED WIND RADII BASED ON A
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT SMOS IMAGE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SE OF TOKYO
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 291130Z
   D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 291400Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: NORTHERLY FLOW (SHEAR INDUCING) IN NW QUADRANT
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WILL TRACK NNW THROUGH
TAU 24 ALONG THE SW BOUNDARY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
34N 143E. NORTHERLY FLOW CAUSING SHEAR IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY 
MOISTEN, ALLOWING TS 05W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. THE 
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE NW-WNW DUE TO THE STRONG
INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH FROM TAU 24 THROUGH 72. THE 
TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW A 
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 95 
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 120.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM EAST OF TRACK,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
RANGING FROM 62NM AT TAU 48 TO 84NM AT TAU 60, WITH SIMILAR
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 40NM AND 43NM, RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE 
290600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE IS ONLY INDICATING A LOW PROBABILITY (10 TO 
20 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), RI GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED 
FOR THE FIRST TIME INDICATING SOME INCREASED RI POTENTIAL THROUGH TAU 
48. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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