WDPN32 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 133.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A DEFINED CENTROID. MSI ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID AND IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 290455Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH INTENSE SPIRAL BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 290330Z BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALIGNING VERY WELL WITH THE CENTROID LOCATION. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA, THE 290000Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED 65NM SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. A PREVIOUS 282117Z SMAP IMAGE DEPICTED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-50 KNOT (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA: 34KT WIND RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE SMAP DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SE OF TOKYO EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 290454Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 290530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SHIFTED FORECAST TRACK WEST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WILL TRACK NNW THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SW BOUNDARY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 34N 143E. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT EXPERIENCES THE EFFECTS OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND NORTHERLY SHEAR, ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN THE NW QUADRANT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE NW-WNW DUE TO THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 85KT WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD RANGING FROM 117NM AT TAU 48 TO 135NM AT TAU 60. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (AEMN), MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. GFS AND AEMN INDICATE A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER OKINAWA WITH A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN ALONG THE EASTERN CHINA COAST BUT GFS APPEARS TO BE TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) INDICATES A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INLAND TO A SHARP POLEWARD TURN. THE 290000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (80 PERCENT) OF A WNW TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A POLEWARD TRACK. THE 290000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN