WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.9N 118.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 194 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS NEARLY COMPLETE AND
DOKSURI IS REGATHERING ITSELF FOR A FINAL RUN IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
THE POSITION WAS FIXED UNDER THE WARMEST PIXELS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LAST OF THE OLD EYE. THE REPLACEMENT EYEWALL IS NOT
PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS AS FAR AS DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, NEARLY IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RENEWED INTENSIFICATION. DOWNWELLING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY IS ALSO WARMING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR 32C ALONG TRACK AND MAKING DOKSURI LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL
CANDIDATE FOR INTENSIFICATION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE ERC
PREJUDICED BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS
THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CIS OF T5.5 FROM KNES
RCTP AND JTWC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 271730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-32 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DOKSURI IS NOT DONE YET. IT HAS
FINISHED MUCKING UP THE LUZON STRAIT AND IS NOW UNLEASHING ITS
WRATH UPON THE TAIWAN STRAIT. NOW THAT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT IS 
COMPLETED AND DOKSURI HAS MOVED UNDER THE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND 
INTO EXTREMELY WARM WATERS, IT WILL DO ONE MORE SURGE PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL NEAR QUANZHOU CHINA AS ITS FINAL ACT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHT AND HAS BEEN REMARKABLY
CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THIS STORM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT
PREDICTING THE SURGE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THAT IS HUMAN OVERRIDE.
THUS THE JTWC FORECAST IS ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS
THEN HASTENS TO CATCH UP TO THE STEEP DECLINE INDICATED AFTER
LANDFALL. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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