WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.7N 119.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A RECENT 262250Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.
ADDITIONALLY, MSI NOW SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME COMPLETELY
CLOUD FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 262250Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE 230000Z ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES RANGING 63 TO 72 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT D-PRINT AND D-MINT ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
SHARPLY WITH THE RECENT ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 68 TO 70 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 262330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TYPHOON 05W CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN DUE TO DEGRADED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE INFLOW DISRUPTION. 05W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL REMAIN WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL REMAIN LOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 24,
05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRACK WITH ONLY A 90NM IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD 
BY TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE 
REMAINS HIGH. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH GFS AND HWRF 
INDICATING A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION PHASE TO 90 KNOTS,
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY AND EVEN WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, ALL MODELS GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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