WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.0N 120.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 316 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 
EYE FEATURE WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 261302Z GMI 89 
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE WITH FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED 
EYE DEPICTS IN EIR, ALONG WITH THE TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION 
FIXES.THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AS WELL AS
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 261730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
PAST SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DUE TO WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS),
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
THE SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF WINDOW IN WHICH IT WILL EITHER MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO TRACK WITH ONLY A 75NM IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD BY TAU
36 AT TIME OF LANDFALL. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TRACK GUIDANCE
SPREAD INCREASES SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION
PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LUZON INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 36, ALL MODELS GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO LAND DISSIPATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24 AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
MEAN BEYOND TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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