WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 120.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 393 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, 
EQUATORWARD FLOW HAS REMAINED ROBUST. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED 8NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE 
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 261302Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR 
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK, ERODING MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 261130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED HIGHLY 
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACKS AND CONTINUES TO 
INDICATE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PAST SOUTHERN TAIWAN INTO 
SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH LANDFALL AT TAU 36. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE GALE 
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 35 PLUS KNOTS THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS TY 05W 
APPROACHES TAIWAN. AS TY 05W TRACKS AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON, THERE 
IS A SHORT PERIOD OF OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING HIGH 
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN A BRIEF 
REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS 
WITH TAIWAN. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36, TY DOKSURI WILL MAINTAIN A 
POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH 
ORIENTED STR DEEP INTO CHINA WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH SHIFTED 
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF TRACK, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 20NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 
36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY OVERLAND BUT REMAINS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THUS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY OVER 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SHORT 
REINTENSIFICATION PHASE TO ABOUT 100 KNOTS BUT THIS PEAK IS OBVIOUSLY 
TIED TO THE HOW LOW THE DIP GOES; SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM 
COULD WEAKEN TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE 260600Z COAMPS 
ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INDICATES A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE 
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 30 SUPPORTING JTWC'S MODEST 
REINTENSIFICATION PHASE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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