WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 121.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 422 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION NEAR FUGA
ISLAND (NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE), TYPHOON (TY) 05W HAS
RESUMED A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
DALUPIRI ISLAND. TY 05W WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS QS PHASE
AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE RUGGED NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON AS
INDICATED IN THE 251000Z AND 252155Z RCM-3 SAR BULLSEYE IMAGES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS NO LONGER ANY EVIDENCE OF THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH HAD COMMENCED ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 10NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 260447Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL, WEAK MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, ERODED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. OVERALL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, RCTP AND KNES CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE 260600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 104
KNOTS AND THE 260600Z D-PRINT ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT RCM-3 SAR DATA AS WELL
AS A PARTIAL 260153Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REFLECTING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
REGION OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE LUZON STRAIT AND ALONG BOTH THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF LUZON.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 260530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVERALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED
HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACKS AND
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PAST
SOUTHERN TAIWAN INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM,
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 PLUS KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT AS TY 05W APPROACHES TAIWAN. AS TY 05W TRACKS AWAY
FROM NORTHERN LUZON, THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS INCLUDING HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WHICH WILL
LIKELY AID IN A BRIEF REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH TAIWAN. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU
36, TY DOKSURI WILL MAINTAIN A POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR DEEP INTO CHINA WITH 
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS; THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 IS NOW
90NM LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES OVERLAND THEREFORE OVERALL
TRACK CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A SHORT REINTENSIFICATION PHASE TO ABOUT 100 KNOTS BUT THIS 
PEAK IS OBVIOUSLY TIED TO THE HOW LOW THE DIP GOES; SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE 260000Z COAMPS ENSEMBLE (CTCXEPS) INDICATES A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 6 TO TAU 36 SUPPORTING 
JTWC'S MODEST REINTENSIFICATION PHASE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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