WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.9N 121.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 238 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG,
TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE 
SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT UNDERWENT EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE EYEWALL HAS SHRUNK TO LESS THAN
10NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THE PINHOLE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 252346Z GPM 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADATION. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
LAND INTERACTION AND ERC PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE LOW VWS, WARM SST
AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 260000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 105 KTS AT 260000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 107 KTS AT 252341Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE TAIWAN STRAIT THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN,
CHINA JUST BEFORE TAU 48. TY 05W WILL NOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO 
THE ERC AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND TAIWAN. 
BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER 
LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL 
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION 
BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 216NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONW. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN