WDPN31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.0N 121.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 223 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY INTENSE SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO SUSTAIN A HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL, SHARPLY-OUTLINED 24-NM EYE AS IT TRACKED ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE LUZON STRAIT, PHILIPPINES. RAIN BANDS REMAIN EXPANSIVE TRAILING ALL THE WAY TO PALAWAN ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR EIR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS JUST UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC); HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 100 KTS AT 251700Z CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 251730Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 109 KTS AT 251800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TAIWAN STRAIT THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA JUST AFTER TAU 48. TY 05W WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE ERC AND LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND TAIWAN. BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 75KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 237NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONW. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN