WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.9N 122.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 276 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING 
CLOUD TOPS OVER DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SHOWING FRAGMENTATION. A
250837Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH A COMPLETE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE ALLUDING 
THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) HAS COMMENCED; THE CIMSS MPERC 
PRODUCT SHOWS ERC ONSET PROBABILITIES PEAKED NEAR 50 PERCENT AT 
250300Z SUGGESTING AN ERC IS IMMINENT. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AT BASCO
RADAR SITE (98134), 120NM NNW OF THE SYSTEM, REPORTED A PEAK OF 58KTS
SUSTAINED AT 251300Z, WITH CALAYAN (98133), WHICH WAS DIRECTLY IN THE 
FORECASTED TRACK, CEASING REPORTS AT 251000Z. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 251200Z HIMAWARI9 IRDBE IMAGE 
WITH A VERY DISCERNABLE EYE (25NM DIAMETER). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS CIMSS SATCON AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. 
A 251000Z RCM3 SAR IMAGE REVEALED A VMAX OF 111 KNOTS, HOWEVER, 
INCIDENCE ANGLES WERE HIGH (49-50 DEGREES) ALLUDING TO POSSIBLE
UNDERESTIMATION OF THE VMAX.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 126 KTS AT 251103Z
   CIMSS ADT: 119 KTS AT 251130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET LAND
INTERACTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE HELD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW). AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60 ALONG SOUTHEAST MAINLAND CHINA,
AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO FORECASTED TRACK SPEED THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM
AGREEMENT IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD (140NM) AT TIME OF LANDFALL. GFS
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE; ANALYSIS OF THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS
INDICATE THE MODEL IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED NEAR THE JTWC CONSENSUS (CONW) WITH THE BULK OF
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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