WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.4N 123.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 276 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES LAND INTERACTION WITH 
NORTHEAST LUZON. RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH FEEDS INTO A MIDLATITUDE
UPPER LOW OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, BOLSTERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 250600Z 
HIMAWARI-9 IRDBE IMAGERY WITH A VERY DISCERNABLE EYE (30NM
DIAMETER). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS 
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   DEMS: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 124 KTS AT 250430Z
   CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 250530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A POOL 
OF HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SIGNIFICANT RADIAL OUTFLOW WILL 
OFFSET LAND INTERACTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THEREFORE FORECAST 
INTENSITIES WERE HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY 
CONSENSUS (ICNW). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN 
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH 
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72 ALONG 
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND CHINA, AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO FORECASTED TRACK SPEED THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM
AGREEMENT IN CROSS TRACK SPREAD (185NM) AT TIME OF LANDFALL. GFS AND 
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE AIDS ENVELOPE; ANALYSIS OF THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS INDICATE THE 
MODEL IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AN EXTENSION OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED 
NEAR THE JTWC CONSENSUS (CONW) WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING 
GUIDANCE.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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