WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.7N 124.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 279 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AND VERY
INTENSE SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A MOAT OF DRY AIR HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED THE EYEWALL, AN INDICATION OF IMMINENT EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON THE
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, FOR NOW, WITH VERY WARM
SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 242330Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 131 KTS AT 25000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING STR INTO THE LUZON AND
TAIWAN STRAITS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA, JUST
AFTER TAU 72. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AS AN EWRC WILL NOW WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON AND TAIWAN. BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY
TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND
INCREASING
VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
120 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 184NM WITH GFS ON THE RIGHT
MARGIN AND NVGM AND EEMN ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER, RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION MAY CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM
LENDING ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW IN SLIGHT FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THAT SPREADS OUT TO 323NM DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LAND TRACK. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN