WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 125.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 277 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS
EVIDENCED BY A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 30-NM EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL AND SURROUNDED BY A NEAR-PERFECT CIRCULAR EYEWALL WITH 
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS AT -77 CELSIUS. THE MOAT OF DRY AIR HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYEWALL, AN INDICATION OF IMMINENT EYE WALL 
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 241709Z AMSR2
36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON THE
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND STRONG DUAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA EXTRAPOLATION. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 127 KTS AT 241800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON DOKSURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING STR INTO THE LUZON AND
TAIWAN STRAITS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA, JUST
AFTER TAU 72. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 135KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, AN
EWRC WILL INITIALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND
TAIWAN. BEFORE LANDFALL, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 70KTS BY TAU 72.
AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING
VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
120 AS IT TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 162NM WITH GFS ON THE
RIGHT MARGIN AND NVGM AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER, RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION MAY CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM
LENDING ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW IN SLIGHT FAVOR TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LAND TRACK. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN