WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.3N 126.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 322 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 30NM EYE
SURROUNDED BY SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DRY AIR BUT
THIS HAS NOT PREVENTED TYPHOON 05W FROM CONSOLIDATING AND
INTENSIFYING. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONG CIRRUS STREAKS WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY INDICATING ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
PROVIDING IMPROVING VENTILATION. ADDITIONALLY, A 232136 SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT TY 05W HAS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
REMAINING MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A BROAD RANGE FROM (77-102 KNOTS). 
WHILE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAIN HIGHER WITH CIMSS 
ADT 109 KNOTS, AIDT 101 KNOTS, D-PRINT 100 KNOTS, D-MINT 103 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (0-5 KNOTS) AND OVER WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE PHILIPPINE 
SEA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 232030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STILL TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST, 
TY 05W HAS SHOWN CONSISTENT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST CHINA WILL 
PERSIST IN INDUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF TAIWAN, WHICH 
WILL ALLOW TY 05W TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, THE STR 
IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION AND REORIENT WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD. 
CONSEQUENTLY, TY 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT 
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. IN TERMS OF THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND 
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. THESE HIGHLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
ENABLING TY 05W TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LUZON 
STRAIT DUE TO DECREASED OUTFLOW AND THEN WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO 
COOLING SSTS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED 
AFTER LANDFALL INTO SOUTHWEST CHINA DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM WHICH REPRESENTS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH A 70NM SPREAD IN THE SOLUTION, BY TAU 72 CROSS TRACK
SPREAD INCREASES TO 170NM. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (EPS AND GEFS)
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD 
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT SIMILAR TO DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE,
PROBABILISTIC TRACK SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTER TAU 48
THROUGH TAU 120. OVERALL, THIS LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY 
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND RI 
GUIDANCE MEMBERS THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, ALL MODELS 
GENERALLY FLATTEN OUT AND EVENTUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS 
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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