WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.2N 126.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 344 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 35NM
OBLONG CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH CORE CONVECTION CYCLING WITHIN THE
EYEWALL. EIR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LONG CIRRUS STREAKS WITH
TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY INDICATING ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDING IMPROVING VENTILATION. A 231740Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBLONG EYE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 231740Z ATMS PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW T5.0, KNES T5.0, RCTP T5.0 AND RJTD T4.0,
IN ADDITION TO THE SATCON VALUE OF 94 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (0-5 KNOTS) AND OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 231800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 231730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO 
THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED 
OVER NORTHEAST CHINA WILL PERSIST IN INDUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NORTH OF TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 05W
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION AND REORIENT WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY, TY 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA THEREAFTER. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
NEAR 125 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT DUE TO DECREASED
OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MODEL SPREAD VARIES FROM 80NM AT TAU 48 TO 130NM AT TAU 72. 
THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (EPS AND GEFS) ALSO SHOWS FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. OVERALL, THIS LENDS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS 
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN
AND RI GUIDANCE MEMBERS THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48 ALL MODELS 
GENERALLY FLATTEN OUT AND EVENTUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS 
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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