WDPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.1N 127.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 694 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS, TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FROM 55 KNOTS TO 80 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AND AXISYMMETERIZED. A 230916Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MUCH LARGER UPPER-LEVEL EYE IN THE 91GHZ BAND. THE LAST SIX HOURS OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE THE EYE FILLED IN BRIEFLY AS CONVECTION WANED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY THE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 AND T5.0, THE AIDT ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS. ADT VALUES ARE SHOOTING UPWARD BEYOND T5.4 (99 KNOTS) BY 231300Z, LIKELY A LEADING INDICATOR OF THINGS TO COME. THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED LARGER BASED ON A 230906Z SMAP PASS. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) DEPICT AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL WARM CORE, WITH A DIVERGENT CYCLONIC ROTATION EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO 100MB PROVIDING AN USUAL BUT EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW MECHANISM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW EXTENDS TO ABOUT 23N LATITUDE AND IS ABOUT TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF SOUTHERN KYUSHU. ONCE THIS LINK UP OCCURS, EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST. SHEAR REMAINS NONEXISTENT, AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM, HIGH OHC WATERS. THE STAGE IS SET FOR NEAR-TERM RI. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 231130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE LATEST TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST, AND MAY BE SUGGESTIVE OF THE LONG AWAITED TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE 1200Z SOUNDINGS AT ISHIGAKIJIMA, AND KAGOSHIMA SHOW STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVELS, WHILE SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTH KOREA SHOW SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT, INDICATING THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM KYUSHU THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA AND INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL PERSIST IN BREAKING THE RIDGE NORTH OF TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHICH WILL INDUCE TY 05W NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION AND REORIENT, TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS CENTERED NEAR TOKYO WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 05W TO PUSH FURTHER POLEWARD. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, TURNING GRADUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST BY TAU 36, PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON BY TAU 48, MOVING INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 96, AND THEN LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WELL GRAB THE POPCORN FOLKS, THE DOKSURI SHOW IS ABOUT TO BEGIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ONCE THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A CUTOFF LOW TO THE NORTH IS ESTABLISHED. ONCE THIS CHANNEL CONNECTS TO THE UPPER LOW, AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RI, INCREASING FROM 80 KNOTS TO AT LEAST 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. A FASTER PACE OF INTENSIFICATION AND HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BASED ON THE TRENDS SEEN IN JUST THE PAST TWO HOURS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC HOUR. AFTER REACHING THE PEAK, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT DUE TO DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST OF TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP AND CONGEAL AROUND A LUZON STRAIT, SOUTHWEST TAIWAN SCENARIO, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 DECREASING TO 185NM BETWEEN THE NAVGEM ON THE LEFT AND GFS ON THE RIGHT. OF NOTE, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC TRACKER HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND WHILE REMAINING THE EASTERNMOST TRACKER, IS NOT THAT MUCH OF AN OUTLIER ANY LONGER. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER HAS ALSO MOVED A BIT TO THE EAST AND THE NOW LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN, THE SUPER-ENSEMBLE (ECENS, CMC, GEFS, MOGREPS) MEAN HAS ALSO CONVERGED ONTO THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS MEAN, LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEIR MEANS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO, THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PEAK INTENSITY AND THE TIMING OF THE PEAK. THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE RI PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 85 PERCENT, AS DO THE RIPA, RIDE, FRIA AND DTOP RI AIDS, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL RI SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST PEAKS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RIDE MODEL WHICH GOES TO 135 KNOTS, AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A, WHICH PEAKS CLOSER TO TAIWAN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN