WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8N 129.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 464 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
STRENGTHENING CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE, 
WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO 
SHOWS EXTENSIVE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLCC. A 222203Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEVERAL BANDS TO 
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING 
OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REPORTING T3.5. ALONG WITH
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ADT SHOWING 57
KNOTS AND SATCON SHOWING 50 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 222020Z
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 222020Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (05W) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS),
ALONG WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
TUTT-CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TS
05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. BY TAU 24, AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN CHINA AS THE STR IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD 
AND REORIENT VERTICALLY, AS A RESULT THE STR WITH STEER THE SYSTEM 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36, 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
WHILE CROSSING OVER A POOL OF VERY WARM SSTS, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT (OHC). THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE 
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, 05W IS EXPECTED TO 
MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN TAIWAN WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE BACK OVER THE TAIWAN 
STRAIT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY A 70NM SPREAD IN
TRACK SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FROM 80NM AT TAU
72 TO 270NM BY TAU 120. UEMN REPRESENTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE AVNO AND AEMN MAKE UP THE EASTERN EDGE.
HOWEVER, AVNO AND AEMN HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST FROM
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE AVNO AND AEMN SOLUTIONS AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION 
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SIZABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE PEAK INTENSITY. 
ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED 
LENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IMMINENT RI PHASE ALONG
WITH THE HAFS-A WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 120 KNOTS BY TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72 ALL MODELS GENERALLY FLATTEN OUT AND EVENTUALLY
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN