WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.7N 129.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 493 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH BROAD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO USEFUL ASCAT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T3.0 AND
T3.5. ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
ADT SHOWING 43 KNOTS AND SATCON SHOWING 46 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT-CELL POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AND
SSTS VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 221630Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 221630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN CHINA AS THE
STR IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND REALIGN IN A NORTH-SOUTH 
ORIENTATION. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTS WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO TURN AND 
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE OF THE FORECAST. TS 05W 
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW VWS AND VERY WARM SSTS. AFTER TAU 36, 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL WHILE CROSSING OVER A POOL OF VERY WARM SSTS, AND HIGH OCEAN 
HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHILE RESULT IN A 
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL 
INTO TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 96, 05W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE REEMERGING 
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER 
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24 WITH ONLY A 40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, FROM
TAU 48 TO TAU 96 THE SPREAD INCREASES FROM 145-275NM. NVGM
REPRESENTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE AVNO AND
AEMN MAKE UP THE EASTERN EDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE AVNO AND AEMN SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LARGE SPREAD AFTER TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 120. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS
TRIGGERED LENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IMMINENT RI PHASE ALONG 
WITH THE HAFS-A WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 135 KNOTS BY TAU 
96. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN 
THROUGH TAU 48 AND ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN BEYOND TAU 72. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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