WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 131.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 835 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH VIGOROUS
FLARING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO HAMPER WRAPPING OF THE CONVECTION
AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE GFS MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE WEAK VORTEX REMAINS TILTED. A 212023Z F16 PASS
OFFERED LITTLE HELP TO FINE TUNE THE CENTER POSITION, BUT DID
REVEAL THAT CORE CONVECTION WAS STILL WEAK AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON AVAILABLE FIXES WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THANKS TO THE PARTIAL EXPOSURE. HOWEVER, A LATE-ARRIVING
220044Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS (NO CENTER COVERAGE) RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLC COULD BE 20 MILES FURTHER WEST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 35 KNOTS, BASED ON T2.5 FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE
WRAPPING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH NOTED. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TICKED UP
TO 10-15 KNOTS, FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
OUTFLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY CONSTRAINED TO AN EQUATORWARD CHANNEL,
WITH A TUTT TO THE NORTH EAST PROVIDING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT. OCEAN
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ANALYSIS OF F16 DATA. ASCAT PROVIDED NO
COVERAGE OF EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 212340Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 212340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) DOKSURI SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT DAY, WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE VORTEX EXPECTED
AS CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 24, AS INDICATED BY MULTIPLE RI AIDS. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
AFTER WHICH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR,
ALLOWING DOKSURI TO START TRACKING POLEWARD. THE TIMING OF THE 
POLEWARD TURN WILL LARGELY DICTATE IF DOKSURI TRACKS MORE TOWARDS 
SOUTHERN TAIWAN, OR FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE RYUKUS. PEAK INTENSITY 
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 105 KNOTS. THE TRACK WAS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BASED ON THE GFS
AND HAFS-A SOLUTIONS. 


MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND HAFS-A MODEL
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SPREAD ENVELOPE DUE TO A 
FASTER POLEWARD TURN. THE REST OF THE SPREAD IS SLOW TO GAIN LATITUDE 
AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ITS TIME DEVELOPING, WHICH IS WHAT CURRENT 
ANALYSIS INDICATES. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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