WDPN31 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.4N 131.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 420 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED CIRA PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH VIGOROUS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. A 1640Z AMSR PASS RECENTLY ARRIVED, REVEALING LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC, GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITIONING. ASCAT PASSES FROM SIX HOURS EARLIER WAS HELPFUL IN ASSESSING THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION, INDICATING ONLY 25 TO 30 KNOT MAX WINDS DISPLACED 50 NM EAST OF THE CENTER WITHIN GRADIENT FLOW. NORTHERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND HINDERING OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING A MODERATE CHANNEL. GFS SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT YET VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LLC, FURTHER HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON T2.0 DVORAK FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT AND CURRENT AUTOMATED FIXES. SST REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: QUASI-STATIONARY, WITH WEAK WESTERLY COMPONENT DUE TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 32 KTS AT 211636Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 211730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) DOKSURI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 36, AS INDICATED BY MULTIPLE RI AIDS. A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, ALLOWING DOKSURI TO START TRACKING POLEWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST AND FURTHER ENHANCES THIS MOTION. PEAK INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 105 KNOTS, HOWEVER, THE HIGH RESOLUTION HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER VALUES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN OUTLIERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SPREAD ENVELOP, AS A RESULT OF THESE MODELS INITIATING THE POLEWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE STR TO THE NORTH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE, MAKING THIS UNLIKELY, FAVORING THE DELAYED TURN SEEN IN ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE. THAT SAID, GUIDANCE HAS STEADILY SHIFTED EASTWARD. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, AND FUTURE WARNINGS MAY BE ADJUSTED FURTHER EASTWARD IF A TURN BEGINS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE TRACK WAS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT NOTING THE GFS SOLUTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH// NNNN