WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (TALIM) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4N 109.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 203 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
TIGHTLY WRAPPED TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION MOVING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND
RECENT 171617Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY BOTH
LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT ALSO
ITS DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE GMI IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC
WHILE THE PORTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER MAINLAND CHINA IS DEVOID OF
SUCH BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, ANIMATED RADAR AND GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING T3.5
AS WELL AS CIMSS DMINT AND DPRINT WHICH SHOWS 70-72KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH CHINA

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER CROSSING THE LUICHOW PENINSULA, THE
EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST HAS FORCED TYPHOON 04W
EQUATORWARD AND BRIEFLY INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE WARM WATERS
AND MODERATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY DELAY
THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM
WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE LANDFALL BUT THERE IS NO LONGER A SILVER
LINING. THE RELATIVELY MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF SOUTHERN CHINA WILL
LAY WASTE TO THE SYSTEMS COHESION AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION,
RESULTING IN A SHARP WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
FULLY DISSIPATE AS ITS REMNANTS CONTINUE WESTWARD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 04W WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 12 AND PROCEED INLAND
THROUGH TAU 36. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING A SHARP WEAKENING TREND AFTER
LANDFALL UNTIL ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 36.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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