WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (TALIM) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.2N 111.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON 04W HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND
MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 171330Z NEAR THE EASTERN BASE OF THE 
LEIZHOU PENINSULA. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLOW 
DECAY OF THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OBSCURATION OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WEATHER RADAR SHOWS EVIDENCE 
OF A RAGGED EYE PERSISTING DESPITE THE GREATER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER LAND. A 171010Z HIMAWARI-9 INFRARED IMAGE 
POSITIONED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND RELATIVELY 
SHALLOWED CONVECTION POLEWARD OF THE LLCC DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND 
INDUCED FRICTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON A 171200Z PGTW RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE UTILIZING PGTW, RCTP, AND KNES DVORAK 
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 171140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE 04W
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIGHTLY ALIGNED GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH POINT GUIDANCE 
DIVERGES THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 130NM. RELIABLE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE RAPID WEAKENING PHASE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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