WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (TALIM) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.2N 113.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM
(400+ NM ACROSS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) THAT CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE AS ITS EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE RAGGED
BUT DEFINED 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND LINED UP WITH THE MICROWAVE
EYE FROM THE 162324Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS
ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR
IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE SCS OFFSETTING THE LOW-MEDIUM 
VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER,
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 162340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE
WARM SCS, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR ZHANJIANG
AROUND TAU 15, THEN CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
LANDFALL NEAR THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER AROUND TAU 27. TY 04W HAS
PEAKED INTENSITY AND WILL NOW GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE MOSTLY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN VIETNAM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A 141NM
BY TAU 48. IN VIEW OF THIS AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN A LAND
TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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