WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (TALIM) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 114.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 156 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM (400+ NM ACROSS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) THAT CONTINUED
TO CONSOLIDATE AS ITS EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A
NEWLY-FORMED 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS
IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND D-PRINT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYE. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) OFFSETTING THE LOW-
MEDIUM VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER,
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.



AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 161740Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 64 KTS AT 161730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE
WARM SCS, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR ZHANJIANG
JUST BEFORE TAU 24, THEN CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A
FINAL LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU 36. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS
BY TAU 12. LAND INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS
WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL THEN RAPID EROSION AFTER
TAU 36, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AFTER IT TRACKS OVER
NORTHERN VIETNAM AND INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A 179NM
BY TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN A LAND
TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND 
INTENSITY FORECASTS.
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