WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (TALIM)        
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4N 115.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
FORMATIVE EYE WITH EXTENSIVE EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 160548Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
MOSTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE. A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EVIDENCED BY STRENGTHENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
CONTINUED ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, DISTANCING FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTREMIS, AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S 
CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, RCTP DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE CIMSS
SATCON ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 160540Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 160540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH IS NOW FILLING AND PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE KOREAN PENINSULA. HIGH SSTS AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL 
CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 30, AT WHICH POINT 04W WILL 
BEGIN EXPERIENCING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND LEIZHOU PENINSULA. AFTER A SHORT TRACK OVER 
NORTHERN GULF OF TONKIN, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 90NM AT TAU 48. 
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A WIDE SPREAD OF PEAK
INTENSITIES NEAR TAU 24 FROM 60 TO 85 KNOTS. THE 160000Z COAMPS-TC
INTENSITY ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A PEAK 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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