WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (TALIM) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.1N 116.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM (400+ NM ACROSS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) THAT
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS ITS EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPED 
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME PARTLY 
EXPOSED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING LOW CLOUD LINES INTO THE NOW 
PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED 
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE AND WRAP 
IMPROVEMENTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) 
OFFSETTING THE MEDIUM TO HIGH VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER,
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 152330Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 160000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE
WARM SCS, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR ZHANJIANG
AFTER TAU 36, THEN CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 54. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO 80KTS BY TAU 36 PRIOR TO
INITIAL LANDFALL. LAND INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND
INCREASING VWS WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL THEN
RAPID EROSION AFTER TAU 36, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT
TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A 
265NM BY TAU 48, THEN TO OVER 400NM BY TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS AND 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN A LAND TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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