WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (TALIM) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.7N 117.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 267 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM (440 NM ACROSS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) THAT CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED NEW RAIN BANDS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, ADDING TO ITS EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO BORNEO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE
1516285 GPM 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, ADT, AND D-PRINT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE AND WRAP IMPROVEMENTS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE VWS ALOFT, AND WARM SST IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM:  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER,
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 151740Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 151700Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, OVER
THE WARM SCS, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR ZHANJIANG
AROUND TAU 48, AND CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 60. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO 80KTS BY TAU 36
BUT MAY REACH A PEAK OF 85 KTS PRIOR TO INITIAL LANDFALL. LAND
INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN WILL MOSTLY BE 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL THEN RAPID EROSION AFTER TAU 48,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM 
AND
DEEP INTO THE CHINESE INTERIOR.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE
197NM BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE TRACKERS SPREAD OUT TO 320NM BY TAU
96, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY 
FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72, 
THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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