WDIO31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY)    
WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.6N 66.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 197 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A REMAINS SURPRISINGLY RESILIENT AGAINST 
STRONG, PERSISTENT (30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
RAPIDLY PULSING CORE CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT 
WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH STRONG VWS 
AND HIGH-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MODERATE 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SST VALUES. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE 
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH IMPROVED CORE STRUCTURE AS INDICATED IN A 
132327Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED 
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED, 30-35NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE 
EYE FEATURE. THE SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IS NOW POSITIONED ONLY ABOUT 5NM NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER--THIS REDUCED TILT RESULTING IN A BETTER 
ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THANKS TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION SSMIS IMAGERY, THERE 
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. AFTER CONSIDERABLE 
DISCUSSION, THE 131200Z INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS SUPPORTED 
BY THE 131330Z RCM-1 SAR DATA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 96 KNOTS OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT; THE 131800Z INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY TO 
90 KNOTS; AND THE 140000Z INITIAL INTENSITY WAS CONSERVATIVELY HELD 
AT 90 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KNES CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT OBJECTIVE 
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY BUT 
APPEAR TOO LOW BASED ON THE RECENT SAR IMAGE AND A 131709Z ULTRA HIGH 
RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST OVER WESTERN INDIA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: 4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: 5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 132150Z
   CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 132100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A WILL RECURVE SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND WILL APPROACH THE INDIA-
PAKISTAN BORDER AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO 
INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. AFTER TAU 36 WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES 
LANDFALL, TC 02A WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 72 OVER NORTHWEST INDIA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH REMAINS THE
SOLE OUTLIER WITH A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 45NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
LANDFALL (TAU 36). IN GENERAL, THE 131800Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES 
INDICATE A SIMILAR SPREAD AND REVEAL A TIGHT GROUPING OF SOLUTIONS 
NEAR THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER REGION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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