WDIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY) WARNING 
NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.7N 67.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 369 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 41 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A ONCE AGAIN WANING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT
IS DEVOID OF THE NASCENT EYE FEATURE FROM JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. AN
111120Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE SAME WAXING AND
WANING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE THAT HAS PLAYED OUT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE JUST SIX HOURS AGO THE SYSTEM WAS FLIRTING WITH
AN EYE FEATURE, THIS SERIES OF SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE AN OPEN AND
UNIMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE NORTHERN QUADRANT
OF THE 91GHZ IMAGE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE LOWER QUALITY,
A 110833Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE RADIOMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD WITH A SMALL PATCH OF 100-110KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LLCC.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T5.5 AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 MICROWAVE
RADIOMETRY PASS WHICH SHOWED 100-110KTS. THE REMAINING AGENCY
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO YIELD LOWER
VALUES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE EAST OVER INDIA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 82 KTS AT 110909Z
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 110900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, 02A HAS DEMONSTRATED A
PROCLIVITY FOR INTENSIFICATION DESPITE NEARLY 30KTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, 02A HAS ONCE AGAIN VISIBLY
WEAKENED AND AS SHOWN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY RESUMED A SLIGHT
VERTICAL TILT. AS THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME 02A HAS CYCLED IN THIS
FASHION, IF THE SYSTEM CAN REGAIN ITS ORGANIZATION WHILE THE
OUTFLOW PATH TO THE WEST IS AVAILABLE, THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHORT
TERM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES POLEWARD, THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS CUTOFF
AND REPLACED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, WHICH TOGETHER WITH NEARLY
30KTS OF VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND MAKE LANDFALL AS THE STR REORIENTS. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE SYSTEM WILL BE EVISCERATED AS IT PROCEEDS INLAND, RAPIDLY
WEAKENING TO 40KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH ALL MEMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AS THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN VARIES BETWEEN
MEMBERS. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH HWRF THE ONLY MEMBERS THAT INDICATED POSSIBLE NEAR TERM
INTENSIFICATION. THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS COAMPS-TC
(THE OTHER COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERIC MODEL) SHARPLY WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LEAVING A GROWING DISPARITY IN
UPPER AND LOWER BOUNDS AS TIME PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED JUST ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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