WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.6N 133.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 328 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 110844Z SSMIS 91GHZ AND 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS GREATLY REDUCED DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND WORSENING VERTICAL TILTING DUE TO PERSISTENT SHEAR. AN 110859Z
SCATTEROMETERY PASS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS POLARIZED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EIR, SSMIS AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONTINUED HEDGE ABOVE
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FAR MORE AGGRESSIVELY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 111140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH AND BUILDING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD, A CLASSIC BATTLE BETWEEN IMPROVING OUTFLOW,
COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL BEGIN.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT
MODERATE VWS AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY. THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE EAST
WILL CUTOFF AND THE SYSTEM WILL INSTEAD BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH. DURING THIS SAME TIME HOWEVER, VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. THE
RESULTS OF THIS WILL BE INITIALLY GRADUAL WEAKENING THAT WILL
WORSEN WITH TIME. AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE JET STREAM, THE
HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND BAROCLINIC REGIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
TEAR THE SYSTEM APART AND QUICKLY PROGRESS 03W THROUGH SUB-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (STT) THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, IT WILL BE STRIPPED OF ALL REMAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND EVENTUALLY COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 72, ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MINIMAL CROSS TRACK OR ALONG TRACK
SPREADING. AS A RESULT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. SIMILARLY, RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY, WHICH IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN