WDIO31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY) WARNING 
NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.4N 67.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 386 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 41 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THAT 02A IS
ONCE AGAIN FIGHTING TO REFORM AND CLEAR OUT AN EYE FEATURE. DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY EXPANDED AND RECENTERED ITSELF OVER
THE NOW FULLY OBSCURED LLCC. A FORTUITOUS 110547Z GMI SUITE OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES, SPECIFICALLY THE 89GHZ AND 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE,
REVEALS THAT THE LLCC AND ULCC HAVE REALIGNED VERTICALLY WHICH IS
HELPING TO FUEL ITS INTENSIFICATION. AN 110455Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH A SMALL
COMPACT CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, GMI AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
HEDGE ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH MAINTAIN T5.0
DESPITE PREVIOUS SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) AND SMAP SCALAR
WIND DATA INDICATING UPWARDS OF 100KTS. SINCE THESE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH RESOLUTION PASSES, THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF 02A HAS
IMPROVED AND A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN BOTH FREQUENCY RANGES
DISCUSSED ABOVE STRONGLY INDICATES INTENSIFICATION IS ONGOING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE EAST OVER INDIA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 75 KTS AT 110436Z
   CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 110600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, 02A HAS
DEMONSTRATED A PROCLIVITY FOR INTENSIFICATION DESPITE NEARLY 30KTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, 02A HAS REDUCED
ITS VERTICAL TILT AND LARGELY RECONSOLIDATED ITS CONVECTIVE COVER
NEARLY TO THE POINT OF FORMING AN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. IF THE
SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN THIS TREND WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATH TO THE WEST
IS AVAILABLE, THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 12 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
POLEWARD, THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS CUTOFF AND REPLACED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, WHICH TOGETHER WITH NEARLY 30KTS OF VWS AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL AS THE STR
REORIENTS. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BE
EVISCERATED AS IT PROCEEDS INLAND, RAPIDLY WEAKENING TO 45KTS BY
TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH ALL MEMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER TAU 72 THERE IS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AS THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN VARIES BETWEEN
MEMBERS. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH HWRF THE ONLY MEMBERS THAT SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE NEAR TERM UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE
REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS COAMPS-TC THE OTHER COUPLED
OCEAN ATMOSPHERIC MODEL SHARPLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD LEAVING A GROWING DISPARITY IN UPPER AND LOWER
BOUNDS AS TIME PROGRESSES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN BOTH
CONVECTION AND AXIAL CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SAR AND SMAP DATA. MORE CREDENCE IS PLACED IN THE INITIAL TREND OF
HWRF, AFTER WHICH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
TRENDS OF THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS, ALBEIT WITH OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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