WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.2N 132.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 290 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ERODING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WHICH IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
LINES TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 110617Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 110419Z SCATTEROMETRY
IMAGE REVEALS THAT MUCH LIKE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE HIGHEST
WINDS ARE WITHIN THE SAME EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CONFIRMED LOW BIAS OF DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WHEN COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS 102113Z SYNTHETIC APERTURE
RADAR (SAR) AND SMAP SCALER WIND DATA FROM THE SAME TIME. WHILE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE OTHER INTENSITY DATA IS SUSPECT, THE RECENT TRENDS
HAVE ALL HELD GENERALLY SIMILAR AND COUPLED WITH NO SIZABLE
CONVECTIVE CHANGES, THE RESULT IS 03W LIKELY HOLDING INTENSITY AT
85KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 110456Z
   CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 110540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH. IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD, A CLASSIC BATTLE BETWEEN IMPROVING OUTFLOW,
COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL BEGIN.
AT THE MOMENT, THE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY REBUFFING THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
EAST WILL CUTOFF AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH. DURING THIS SAME TIME HOWEVER, VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. THE
RESULTS OF THIS WILL BE INITIALLY GRADUAL WEAKENING THAT WILL
ESCALATE WITH TIME. AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE JET STREAM,
THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES AND BAROCLINIC REGIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL TEAR THE SYSTEM APART AND QUICKLY PROGRESS 03W THROUGH
SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, IT WILL BE STRIPPED OF ALL REMAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND EVENTUALLY COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 72, ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MINIMAL CROSS TRACK OR ALONG TRACK
SPREADING. AS A RESULT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. SIMILARLY, RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY, WHICH IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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