WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.7N 130.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 378 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH A BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION. A 100857Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN OPEN
CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. USING THE 37GHZ OF THE SAME SSMIS
SERIES, FURTHER REVEALS THE CIRCULATION IS VERTICALLY TILTED WHICH
WILL ALSO SERVE TO HINDER ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON ALL REPORTING AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATING T5.0 AS
WELL AS CIMSS D-MINT AND D-PRINT SHOWING 85KTS AND 87KTS
RESPECTIVELY. CIMSS ADT HAS ONLY RECENTLY COME DOWN FROM 100KTS TO
MORE CLOSELY REFLECT THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTHEAST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
DEEP-LAYER TUTT CELL DUE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 101200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITH THE LOSS OF ITS EYE FEATURE, TY 03W
(GUCHOL) IS BEGINNING TO SUCCUMB TO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, 03W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
RIDGES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH REORIENT AND CONJOIN. DURING THIS
TIME, THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), WHICH HAD BEEN
FUELING THE SYSTEMS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FILLS IN AND MOVES
NORTHWARD. THIS REDUCED OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH COOLING SSTS AND
RELENTLESS NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 70KTS
BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, 03W BEINGS TO INTERACT WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE, THEREBY COMMENCING
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
RAPID INTEGRATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE PASSING TROUGH, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN STT COMPLETING BY TAU 72 AND THE INITIATION OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME,
03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY MOVES POLEWARD AND IS
STRIPPED OF ALL REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, WITH ALL MEMBERS FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THERE IS A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD AS 03W INTERACTS
WITH AND INTEGRATES INTO THE PASSING TROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING AN INITIALLY MILD
WEAKENING TREND THAT STEADILY WORSENS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACE WITH OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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