WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.0N 130.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 410 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC
TYPHOON WITH A PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED 11NM EYE. RECENT 100434Z
AMSR2 89GHZ AND 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL 03W REMAINS
VERTICALLY TILTED DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE IRREGULAR
AND INCOMPLETE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE TWO IMAGES ARE OFFSET BY ABOUT
A DOZEN OR SO NAUTICAL MILES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MSI AND AMSR2 IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A RANGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS D-PRINT AT 84KTS
TO ADT AND SATCON AT AN AGGRESSIVE 100KTS. ALL REPORTING AGENCIES
INDICATE T5.0 WHICH IS CURRENTLY THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF ALL
AVAILABLE INTENSITY DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING PATTERN, WITH A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEEP-LAYER TUTT CELL DUE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 100 KTS AT 100514Z
   CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 100530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 03W (GUCHOL) IS STILL STRUGGLING TO WARD
OFF AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
03W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
REORIENT. DURING THIS TIME, THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT), WHICH HAS BEEN FUELING THE SYSTEMS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
FILLS IN AND MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS REDUCED OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH
COOLING SSTS AND RELENTLESS NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
TO AROUND 75KTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, 03W BEINGS TO INTERACT WITH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE, THEREBY
COMMENCING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A RAPID INTEGRATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE PASSING
TROUGH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN STT BEING COMPLETE BY TAU 72 AND THE
INITIATION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96. DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME, 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY MOVES
POLEWARD AND IS STRIPPED OF ALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72, WITH ALL MEMBERS FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THERE IS A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD AS 03W INTERACTS
WITH AND INTEGRATES INTO THE PASSING TROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING AN INITIALLY SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THAT STEADILY WORSENS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACE WITH OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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