WDIO31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.3N 66.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 638 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A GROWING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH SEVERAL VERTICAL HOT TOWERS
ORBITING THE FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
BENEATH. A FORTUITOUS 061236Z SSMIS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A KIDNEY BEAN SHAPED CENTRAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH
BANDING FEATURES DOMINATING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55KTS
COUPLED WITH CIMSS ADT AT 53KTS, CIMMS DEEP MULTISPECTRAL INTENSITY
OF TC ESTIMATOR (D-MINT) AT 55KTS AND CIMMS DEEP IR INTENSITY OF
TCS (D-PRINT) AT 53KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUITORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTH AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 061215Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER AND STR
TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH RESPECTIVELY. CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT
WHICH IS OVERPOWERING MILD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. BY TAU 48, AFTER REACHING 75KTS, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH POLEWARD INTO A DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH COUPLED
WITH REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL SLOW ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND.
THROUGH TAU 120, AS THE NER CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, 02A
WILL BE PROPELLED POLEWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE ARABIAN SEA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT.
NVGM HAS REJOINED THE PACK, WHILE GFS REMAINS WELL WESTWARD AND
HEADING FOR MASIRAH. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOLLOWS
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND JTWC FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THESE
FACTORS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A BULK OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SEVERAL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS FOLLOWING THE JTWC INTENSITY TREND
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS A SLIGHT SPREAD IN MODEL
OUTPUT AS COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION) AND DECAY-SHIPS (GFS VERSION)
ROCKET UP TO OVER 100KTS WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. THEREFORE, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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