WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 134.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 319 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE
ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH OF A FULLY OBSCURED LLCC. A 060448Z ATMS
165GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES AROUND
A DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND ATMS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAINING T1.5 WHILE AUTOMATED
ESTIMATES SUCH AS CIMMS ADT AND CIMMS DEEP IR INTENSITY OF TCS
(D-PRINT) BOTH ECHO THE JTWC INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUITORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 0600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE OUTFLOW BOTH EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NER AND
STR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST RESPECTIVELY. CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 50KTS BY TAU 24. AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS, SO TOO DOES THE
STEERING PATTERN. BY TAU 36, NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW PATTERN, 03W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. BY TAU 72, APPROACHING THE AXIS OF THE STR,
THE SYSTEM WILL STEADY UP ONCE AGAIN ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD
TRACK. BY TAU 120, WITH AROUND 85KTS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT DIGS
DOWN FROM THE WEST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH ALL MEMBERS FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, MODEL OUTPUT DOES FAN OUT
SLIGHTLY AS VARIOUS MEMBERS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE NORTHWARD TURN. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SEVERAL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY THROUGH
TAU 72 AND MORE GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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