WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
056//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.0N 135.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 397 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAST
DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST GROSSLY SHEARED AND STRETCHED OUT AS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES GET ABSORBED INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALSO EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF CLOSELY-VALUED AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VWS, COOL SST, AND
COLD NORTHWESTERLY DRY AIR INTRUSION OFFSETTING THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   SATCON: 40 KTS AT 021651Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 021730Z
   UW-CIMSS DMINT: 39 KTS AT 021406Z
   UW-CIMSS DPRINT: 36 KTS AT 021700Z   

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MAWAR WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD THAT IS
EMBEDDED IN AND INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BY TAU
24. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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