WDPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 055// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 29.2N 133.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 496 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ALL REMAINING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS EVIDENT IN 021143Z METOP-C AND 021230Z METOP-B ASCAT PASSES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW AND 020906Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A ZONE OF WINDS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS EVIDENT WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 021143Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 021056Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 021130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 24-25 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A LOW AMPLITUTDE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 12, AND WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO A GALE FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 24. FAVORABLE NEAR-TERM UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES PAST THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO AND THE DIRECTION OF MOTION, WITH MODERATE SPREAD PRIMARILY IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION DUE TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF TRACK SPEED. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN