WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
054//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.3N 131.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 599 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
AND DIVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY FIXES AND 020421Z 37
GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE 
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AND PERIPHERAL WINDS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS EVIDENT
IN BOTH EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND IN WIND SPEEDS DERIVED FROM A 020346Z 
AMSR2 PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND SPEEDS DERIVED FROM A 020346Z AMSR2
PASS FOR THE EASTERN QUADRANTS AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK FOR THE
WESTERN QUADRANTS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 020426Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 020530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
SITUATED ABOUT 35 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT TAU 12
AND 30 NM NORTH AT TAU 24 DUE TO RECENT STORM MOTION, BUT CONVERGES
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH
REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY FULLY
TROPICAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24, A LOW AMPLITUDE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM, AND 02W
WILL TRANSITION TO A GALE FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. STRONG
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY FAVORABLE
INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE DECREASING
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE EASTERN 
AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION AND THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION AS
MIGHT BE EXPECTED FOR AN ACCELERATING SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS SET
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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