WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
053//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.0N 129.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 101 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE
REGION OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEGRADED
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 012148Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A BROAD SWATH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, AND LENT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
ASSESSED AS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
(10-15 KNOTS), AND COOLER (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 012330Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 012330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PATTERN INDUCED BY
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM TRANSITS IN GENERALLY MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
AFTER TAU 24, TS 02W WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). ADDITIONALLY, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER MAINLAND JAPAN INDUCING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
BY TAU 48, 02W WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A GALE-FORCE LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 70 NM SPREAD IN CROSS TRACK
SOLUTIONS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48 ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES BETWEEN
MANY OF THE TRACK MEMBERS, HOWEVER CROSS TRACK ERROR REMAINS LOW
WITH ALL TRACKS STAYING SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND STAYS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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