WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
052//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.4N 128.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 28 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION. A 011915Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALED A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN
QUADRANT, WITH SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES OUTLINING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE INFRARED IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY THE SSMIS
89GHZ IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN ADDITION TO A 011647Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED PASS
WHICH SHOWED A BROAD BAND OF 45-50 KNOT WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE,
WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-15 KNOTS), AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RANGING (25-26C).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 011711Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 011730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVERALL, THE TRACK MOTION HAS REMAINED STEADY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS TS 02W CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE GENERAL TRACK MOTION WILL
PERSIST, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WITHIN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT ARE GENERALLY MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (10-15 KNOTS), AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING
(25-26C). BY TAU 36, 02W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
WHILE THE SYSTEM ALSO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN. BY
TAU 48, 02W WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
70 NM SPREAD IN CROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES AS AVNI AND NVGI REPRESENT THE SLOWER
TRACK SPEED AND ON THE SOUTHWESTERN ENVELOPE WHILE UEMI AND JGSI
ARE FURTHER EAST, HOWEVER CROSS TRACK ERROR REMAINS LOW WITH ALL
TRACKS STAYING SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE AVNI TRACKER. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AND STAYS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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