WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) 
WARNING NR 050//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.0N 126.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, AND IS CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS  010512Z GMI AND 010441Z
AMSR2 MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY (SATCON) DATA AS WELL AS
010441Z AMSR2 DERIVED WIND SPEEDS. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE READINGS FROM
NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS, INCLUDING MIYAKOJIMA, ARE ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH A 50 KNOT SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 0441Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED DATA AND OBJECTIVE
BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 010444Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 010530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W (MAWAR) IS BEGINNING TO TURN EASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FROM TAU 12 THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT FOLLOWS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE STR AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH 
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 
INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 48, INITIALLY SUPPORTED BY 
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER 
AND LATER BY FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING 
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW EAST 
OF HONSHU AS IT MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 
TAU 72. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO. SPREAD INCREASES
A BIT AROUND TAU 36, PARTICULARLY IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION, AS
THE GFS-BASED MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER EASTWARD TURN AND
A LONGER PERIOD PRECEDING MERGER INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE A SMOOTHER MERGER AND
FASTER FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE MUTED
WEAKENING TREND REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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