WDPN31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 047// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.7N 125.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATED CORE WITH A 10NM EYE, PLUS 4-5C EYE TEMPERATURE AND SPIRAL BANDING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND HOURLY JMA RADAR FIXES. DESPITE MARGINAL SST VALUES (26-27C), THE CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK EYE EVIDENT IN EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AS INDICATED IN A 310937Z RCM-2 SAR BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 KNOTS. ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES ARE ASSESSED AS ERRONEOUSLY LOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK ADJUSTED WITH LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH A DEEP- LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 311108Z CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 310830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 02W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH ZONAL 500MB FLOW PREVAILING TO THE NORTH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND JAPAN. A 310000Z SOUNDING FROM MINAMIDAITO- JIMA (25.8N 131.2E) REVEALS SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 850 TO 350MB, WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS SST VALUES DECREASE TO 26C, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 600NM DIAMETER STORM-FORCE LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER THE OKINAWA REGION IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, TY 02W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE JET AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND EAST OF HONSHU. TY 02W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60NM AT TAU 24 AND 105NM AT TAU 36. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK NORTH OF OKINAWA (EGRI, UEMI) WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA (JGSI, ECMI, AVNI, AEMI, NVGI). THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN LINE WITH THE MORE ACCURATE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, A TRACK OVER OR CLOSER TO OKINAWA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BOTH THE 310600Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SIMILAR SPREAD WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK) IN THE EXACT TRACK NEAR OKINAWA. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN