WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.3N 125.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 287 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
BANDING EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. DESPITE MARGINAL SST VALUES (27C) AND POSSIBLE UPWELLING 
COOLER WATER, THE CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY 
WITH A FORMATIVE EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DUE TO MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS INDICATED IN A 
302139Z RADARSAT-2 SAR BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 72 
KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS), THE 310600Z D-PRINT ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS 
AND THE LATEST SATCON ESTIMATE. ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES ARE ASSESSED 
AS ERRONEOUSLY LOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR 
ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 310501Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 310530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: COOLER UPWELLING WATER

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE 301800Z AND 310000Z BEST TRACK
INTENSITY ANALYSES WERE INCREASED FROM 60 TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON A
302139Z RADARSAT-2 SAR BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 72
KNOTS. THEREFORE, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY 
THROUGH TAU 48. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 02W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH ZONAL 500MB FLOW PREVAILING TO THE
NORTH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND JAPAN. A 310000Z SOUNDING FROM
MINAMIDAITO-JIMA (25.8N 131.2E) REVEALS SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 850 TO
350MB, WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS SST
VALUES DECREASE TO 26C, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 600NM
DIAMETER STORM-FORCE LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER THE OKINAWA REGION IN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 02W WILL ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE JET AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND EAST OF HONSHU.
TY 02W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 55NM AT TAU 24 AND 70NM
AT TAU 36. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK NORTH OF OKINAWA (AFUI,
EGRI, UEMI) WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS JUST SOUTH OF
OKINAWA (JGSI, ECMI, AVNI, AEMI, NVGI). THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE MORE ACCURATE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, A TRACK
OVER OR CLOSER TO OKINAWA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BOTH THE
310000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SIMILAR
SPREAD WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK) IN THE EXACT TRACK NEAR OKINAWA. IN THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO 
ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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