WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 125.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 359 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
GRADUALLY
DEGRADING SYSTEM WITH PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE DECAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
CONTINUED TO FLARE AROUND A CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS, PRESUMABLY ITS 
OBSCURED EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
WARM PIXELS IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF OF 65KTS IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY 
AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND.
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY DUE TO THE INFLUX 
OF
COOL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND
COOLING ALONG-TRACK SST EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SLOW
STORM MOTION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 301749Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 301745Z
   UW-CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 301830Z
   UW-CIMSS D-PRINT: 69 KTS AT 301800Z
   UW-CIMSS D-MINT: 77 KTS AT 301704Z


FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE TERMINAL DEVELOPMENT PHASE IS NOW
FOR EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
AROUND THE STR AXIS BEFORE IT ACCELERATES AND RECURVES
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
WORSE AS VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES, SUSTAINING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING.  CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 120, TY 02W WILL BE
TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE 45-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 110M BY TAU 72 THEN TO 190NM
BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS, AND GIVEN THE TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTIES OF ETT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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