WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.4N 125.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A GRADUALLY
DEGRADING SYSTEM WITH PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE DECAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUED TO
UNRAVEL AND HAS SINCE OBSCURED ITS EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RECENTLY COVERED EYE AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 292229Z SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF OF 80KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
COOL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND
COOLING ALONG-TRACK SST DUE TO UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SLOW STORM
MOTION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 292330Z
   UW-CIMSS AIDT: 7O KTS AT 300000Z
   UW-CIMSS D-PRINT: 78 KTS AT 300000Z
   UW-CIMSS D-MINT: 85 KTS AT 292231Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
AROUND THE STR AXIS BEFORE IT ACCELERATES AND RECURVES
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
WORSE AS VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES, SUSTAINING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING.  CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, TY 02W WILL BE
REDUCED TO A 45-KT HYBRID SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 110M BY TAU 72 THEN TO 160NM
BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AFTER TAU T2. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72,
THEN LOW CONFIDENCES AFTERWARD.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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