WDPN31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 040// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.1N 125.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 370 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEGRADING SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DECAY ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ALSO CONTINUED TO UNRAVEL, ALTHOUGH IT HAS MAINTAINED A DEFINED 26-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF OF 90KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND COOLING ALONG-TRACK SST DUE TO UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SLOW STORM MOTION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 291720Z CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 291730Z UW-CIMSS AIDT: 7O KTS AT 291730Z UW-CIMSS D-PRINT: 9O KTS AT 291800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY AROUND THE STR AXIS BEFORE IT ACCELERATES AND RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AS VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES, SUSTAINING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, TY 02W WILL BE REDUCED TO A 45-KT HYBRID SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 105NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 120NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER TAU T2. IN VIEW OF THIS THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCES AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN