WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4N 125.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 398 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 41 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE,
GENERALLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH WELL-DEFINED BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, 25NM WIDE EYE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE
EYEWALL, WITH A REDUCTION IN THE DIAMETER OF THE CDO IN THAT
DIRECTION, LIKELY DUE TO AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. A 290406Z
TEMPEST 165GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A ROBUST EYEWALL IN ALL BUT
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHERE IT DEPICTED A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL
CONVECTION, CONFIRMING THE DEPICTION IN THE IR AND WV IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY A STRONG MOAT FEATURE, DEVOID
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION, IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS FEATURE, DEPICTED AS AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, IS ALSO BEING PICKED UP IN THE HWRF
CROSS-SECTION DATA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LARGE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD STEADY AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON THE AGENCY
FIXES, SUPPORTED BY THE ADT AND D-PRINT ASSESSMENTS OF 102 AND 106
KNOTS RESPECTIVELY, THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE WEAKENED A SLIGHT
AMOUNT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS AS THE RAW ADT VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO
COME DOWN CLOSER TO T5.0. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, AND MODERATELY WARM SSTS, OFFSET BY
MODERATE LEVELS OF RADIAL OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 290450Z
   CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 290530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, BUT REMAINS TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
DEEP STR IS STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CHINA, WITH A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AS IT ENTERS
THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 24
AND 36. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NORTHWARD, AS THE STR TO
THE EAST BUILDS AND REORIENTS, AND A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH, ENHANCING THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE
COMPLEX. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY
STARTS TO PICK UP SPEED AS THE STR RECEDES FURTHER INTO THE
PACIFIC. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT
MOVES OVER DECENTLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER, THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION
WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS ALONG THE TRACK,
ROBBING THE SYSTEM OF AN ENERGY SOURCE. THIS, COUPLED WITH A LACK
OF A ROBUST OUTFLOW MECHANISM (OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED IN
ALL BUT THE EASTERN DIRECTION), WILL LEAD TO A SLOW BUT STEADY
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48. ONCE THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTH, IT WILL MOVE OVER STEADILY COOLER WATERS BELOW 26C, AND
WHILE SHEAR AND MOISTURE CONTENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE, THE LACK OF AN ENERGY SOURCE WILL RESULT IN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE EARLY PHASE OF
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT WILL LIE IN WATERS BETWEEN 24-26C YET
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK
GUIDANCE AGREE ON THE OVERALL RECURVE SCENARIO BUT DIFFER WIDELY ON
THE TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN, LEADING TO A LARGE
SPREAD IN BOTH THE CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK DIRECTIONS. THE UKMET,
UKMET ENSEMBLE AND GALWEM MARK THE SLOWEST TURNING MODELS,
RESULTING IN A TRACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS OF
CONSENSUS. THE GFS AND GEFS MEANWHILE ARE THE QUICKEST TO TURN AND
THUS ARE THE EASTERN-MOST OUTLIERS, TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER MINAMI
DAITO JIMA, RESULTING IN A 200NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS LIE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN,
WITH THE ECMWF NOW SWITCHING SIDES AND COMING OVER CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION ON THIS RUN. GFS, GEFS AND UKMET ARE ROUGHLY IN LINE
IN TERMS OF THE ALONG-TRACK POSITIONING, WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS
BEHIND ABOUT 200NM AT TAU 120. WHILE NOT PART OF THE CONSENSUS, OF
NOTE ARE THE MESOSCALE MODELS (COTC, CTCX) AND THE JGSM, WHICH RACE
THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AND LIE ALMOST 600NM NORTHEAST OF THE
ECMWF POSITION AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF TRACKER, INSIDE THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE FIRST 72 HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE LARGE ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, THE FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE LATER TAUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH SOME MODELS
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. THUS, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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