WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) 
WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
  INITIAL POSITION: 19.1N 126.2E
  INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
  GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE:  453 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
  MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM 
MAINTAINING ITS APPEARANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BULK 
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT NOW DISCONNECTED 
FROM THE INNER BANDS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
EXAMINATION OF THE EYE FEATURE REVEALS THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS 
WARMED TO 8C AND STILL HAS A DIAMETER OF 25 NM. THE SYSTEM PROXIMITY 
TO THE COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) TO THE NORTH IS 
CAUSING A LACK OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. TY MAWAR IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, A 
HEALTHY 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 C) SST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, ALONG WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY 
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
  PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
  RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
  KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
  CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 282311Z
  CIMSS ADT: 105 KTS AT 290030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  VWS: 5-10 KTS
  SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
  OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 

3. FORECAST REASONING. 

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWEST AS IT RIDES THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 36, 
TY MAWAR WILL STAY ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY AND STEADILY WEAKEN TO 85 
KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED TROPICAL 
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AND 
TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS FROM THE STR TO 
THE NORTHEAST TO A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM OVER CHINA TO THE 
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 60, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE 
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE AS THESE TWO RIDGES 
ORIENTATE THEMSELVES. BY TAU 72 AND BEYOND, THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST 
WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND WILL DRIVE TY MAWAR 
NORTHEASTWARD. ALL THE WHILE, THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO 
DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE 
COOLER (25-26C) SSTS ABOVE THE 20TH PARALLEL, AS WELL AS THE 
UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SYSTEM DURING ITS ANTICIPATED SLOW DOWN 
IN TRACK SPEED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN A 
RELATIVELY TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM SHOWING A 46 NM SPREAD BY 
TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS THEY TRY TO FIGURE 
OUT HOW TO HANDLE THE ANTICIPATED SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED BETWEEN 
TAUS 48 AND 72. ALSO, DURING THESE TAUS THE TRACK MEMBERS ARE SPLIT 
WHERE THE AFUM SOLUTION IS ON THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS 
ENVELOPE, WHEREAS THE GFS SOLUTION IS ON THE FAR EAST SIDE. THE 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A RECURVE SCENARIO TO THE 
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. 
AFTERWARDS, THE TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE 
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE 
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO 
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

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