WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) 
WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
  INITIAL POSITION: 18.5N 126.9E
  INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
  GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE:  483 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
  MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM 
SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING ON A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE BULK OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EXAMINATION OF THE EYE STRUCTURE REVEALS
AN EYE TEMPERATURE OF -3C AND A DIAMETER OF 25 NM. A 281231Z ASCAT-B 
PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS THE PASS WAS ONLY A PARTIAL IMAGE. THE 
SYSTEM PROXIMITY TO THE COOLER (26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
TO THE NORTH IS CAUSING A LACK OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. TY MAWAR IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, A HEALTHY 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW 
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 C) SST. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY FIXES, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 281231Z ASCAT-B PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
  PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
  RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
  KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
  CIMSS SATCON: 117 KTS AT 281648Z
  CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 281830Z 

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  VWS: 5-10 KTS
  SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
  OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 

3. FORECAST REASONING. 

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWEST AS IT RIDES THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 36, 
TY MAWAR WILL STAY ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY AND STEADILY WEAKEN TO 90 
KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED TROPICAL 
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AND 
TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS FROM THE STR TO 
THE NORTHEAST TO A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM OVER CHINA TO THE 
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE 
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE AS THESE TWO RIDGES 
ORIENTATE THEMSELVES. BY TAU 72 AND BEYOND, THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST 
WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND WILL DRIVE TY MAWAR 
NORTHEASTWARD. ALL THE WHILE, THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO 
DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE 
COOLER (25-26C) SSTS ABOVE THE 20TH PARALLEL, AS WELL AS THE 
UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SYSTEM DURING ITS ANTICIPATED SLOW DOWN 
IN TRACK SPEED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN A 
RELATIVELY TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM SHOWING A 52 NM SPREAD BY 
TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS THEY TRY TO FIGURE 
OUT HOW TO HANDLE THE ANTICIPATED SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED BETWEEN 
TAUS 48 AND 72. ALSO, DURING THESE TAUS THE TRACK MEMBERS ARE SPLIT 
WHERE THE AFUM SOLUTION IS ON THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS 
ENVELOPE, WHEREAS THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE FAR EAST 
SIDE. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A RECURVE SCENARIO TO 
THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 60. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. 
AFTERWARDS, THE TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE 
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE 
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO 
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

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